11. Jeff Locke, LHP
2009 Season: The Pirates made a surprise move at the start of June, trading Nate McLouth to the Atlanta Braves, receiving Charlie Morton, Gorkys Hernandez, and Jeff Locke in return. Locke had been struggling in Atlanta's farm system in 2009 before the trade, which might have made him available, considering Atlanta had refused to trade him in previous trade rumors.
In his time with Atlanta, Locke pitched 45.2 innings, with a 5.52 ERA, a 1.60 WHIP, an 8.5 K/9, a 5.1 BB/9, and a 0.2 HR/9 ratio. The walks were very irregular for Locke, who had a 2.4 BB/9 in low-A ball, and a 1.3 BB/9 ratio in rookie ball.
Locke's control problems seemed to evaporate once he got to Lynchburg. In his 81.2 innings with the Hillcats, Locke posted a 4.08 ERA, a 1.42 WHIP, a 6.2 K/9, a 2.0 BB/9, and a 0.4 HR/9 ratio. Locke allowed a lot of hits, but had an unlucky .365 BABIP in his time in Lynchburg. He had a .359 BABIP in Myrtle Beach. Locke's BABIP has always been a bit higher than the normal range for starters, but the 2009 BABIP was even higher than the norm, which could be related to the control issues.
On a side note, there seemed to be a disturbing trend emerging with Locke throughout the season with Lynchburg. It seemed that every time I was in attendance, Locke did absolutely horrible. When I wasn't in attendance for one of his starts, he looked great. Just look at the numbers:
Games I Saw: 18.2 IP in 4 starts, 7.23 ERA, 2.09 WHIP, 4.8 K/9, 1.7 K/BB, 0.0 HR/9 in the regular season. 1.2 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, 2 K, 0 HR in the playoffs.
Games I Didn't See: 63 IP, 3.14 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 6.6 K/9, 3.8 K/BB, 0.6 HR/9 in the regular season. 5.2 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 5 K, 0 HR in the playoffs.
I don't want to start any vicious rumors, but could it be that the Pirates left Lynchburg to avoid such a curse with future pitchers? At any rate, they'll have to pay me to avoid seeing Locke if he's pitching when Altoona visits Richmond next year.
Information: Locke came in to the 2009 season rated as the Braves' seventh best prospect, after being mentioned in pretty much every trade rumor that included the Braves. First, the Braves turned down a deal that would have sent Locke to Pittsburgh in 2008 for Jason Bay. Then, in the winter, the Braves turned down a deal for Jake Peavy because they didn't want to include Locke in a package that also included Yunel Escobar and two other prospects.
Locke is 6' 2" and 180 pounds. Locke has a fastball that sits in the 88-92 MPH range, and tops out at 94. He commands the fastball very well, and pounds the strike zone, which leads to his low walk rates. Locke also has a hard breaking ball that sits in the mid-to-high 70s. The pitch has the potential to be a plus offering, although it has so much movement that it's often hard to control. The good thing is that when it misses, it's usually low and not a hanging breaking ball, which is why Locke doesn't allow many homers.
Locke said he worked on preparation for his starts after coming over to the Pirates' farm system. One would have to think that the constant trade rumors and uncertainty about his future in the Braves organization probably played a part in his struggles with Myrtle Beach. Locke posted a 2.75 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP in 39.1 innings in August and September. He credits the late season success to trying to match the pace of the strong rotation in Lynchburg, which saw the addition of Rudy Owens and Nathan Adcock, the return of Ronald Uviedo, and Justin Wilson's strong second half.
Locke admits that his 2009 season was disappointing, so maybe a fresh start will help him out in 2010. He got things turned around at the end of the season, which is an encouraging sign that he can rebound next year.
2010 Expectations: Locke should start the 2010 season in AA. If he performs at the level we saw in August/September, then we could see him finish the season in AAA. Considering I won't be able to attend any of his starts (unless he starts in one of the games in Richmond), Locke should have no problems performing at the AA level.
Optimistic Projection: Locke could be a solid number 2-3 starter in the future, and a real innings eater, going six innings in almost every outing, but with a solid ERA consistently under 4.00.
Conservative Projection: A back of the rotation starter.
Check back late Sunday night/Monday morning for prospect number 10...
