21. Daniel McCutchen, RHP
2009 Season: McCutchen entered the 2009 season at AAA, his second straight year at the level, after splitting time between AA and AAA in the Yankees system in 2008, followed by finishing the 2008 season in AAA after coming to the Pirates in the Xavier Nady trade. Overall, McCutchen posted a 3.47 ERA in 142.2 innings pitched, with a 6.9 K/9, a 3.8 K/BB, and a 0.6 HR/9 ratio.
McCutchen struggled the first two months of the season, with a 4.35 ERA, a 1.37 WHIP, a 8.2 K/9, a 2.8 K/BB, and a 1.3 HR/9 in April and May. The rest of the season he had a 3.00 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP, a 6.3 K/9, a 5.0 K/BB, and an 0.3 HR/9 ratio.
McCutchen got the call to the majors for the final month of the regular season, getting six starts to prove his second half was legit. In those six starts, McCutchen put up a 4.21 ERA in 36.1 innings pitched, with a 4.7 K/9, a 1.73 K/BB, a 1.5 HR/9, and a 1.35 WHIP. He had a below average ground ball ratio, at 40.5 percent, and actually was a little on the lucky side with a .277 BABIP.
Information: McCutchen was acquired from the Yankees in the trade that sent Xavier Nady and Damaso Marte and brought back Jose Tabata, Ross Ohlendorf, and Jeff Karstens, along with McCutchen. Recently he's been the center of a prospect voting controversy over at the OBN forums, focused on the debate between performance and potential.
Voters were split between McCutchen and Zach Von Rosenberg for the number ten spot. The side arguing for McCutchen stated that he not only has performed well throughout the minors, including AAA, but has had some success in the majors, and looks to be a near lock as a major league starter. The side for ZVR argued that his potential was so good that he could end up being a better player than McCutchen, placing a focus on long term value, rather than the immediate results McCutchen brings. As a side note, before I continue, check out the OBN forum where you can vote for the top 30 prospects in the Pirates system (currently on #16).
Since I haven't ranked ZVR yet, and McCutchen is here, that shows that I was on the ZVR side of this debate (because the only alternative would be ZVR outside of the top 50, and that's not the case). So why do I rank McCutchen below ZVR, and more importantly, why do I rank him eight spots below the popular vote of number 13 over at OBN? Let's tackle it one issue at a time.
The first issue is his age. McCutchen turned 27 in September. That seems kind of old for a player who is just breaking in to the majors. However, McCutchen didn't start his career until 2006, when he was about to turn 24. He started in low A-ball, split between high-A and AA in 2007, AA and AAA in 2008, and AAA and the majors in 2009. That seems like a normal progression, and a successful progression when considering his numbers.
McCutchen could have Nyjer Morgan syndrome. I feel he can be an effective major leaguer, even though he's starting his career late. The problem is that this is his prime, and he likely won't develop in to much more than a back of the rotation starter. While he put up a decent ERA for the Pirates in September, his strikeouts were very low, his home run rate was too high, and he was a little lucky with a .277 BABIP and almost an 80 percent strand rate. His Fielder Independent Pitching ERA was 5.19.
I'll give McCutchen the benefit of the doubt that he will improve on his first 36.1 innings in the majors, to the point where luck won't be as big of a factor. The question is, how much will he improve? I don't expect McCutchen to post the same numbers we saw him put up in the minors, with a WHIP of 1.20 or less, and an ERA close to 3.00. I think he'll have an ERA between 4.00 and 4.50, with a WHIP of 1.33, and home runs will be his achilles heel. Pretty much what we saw in 2009, only it will be legit, and not based on luck.
The next issue is success vs projectability. McCutchen will probably help the major league team next year. He's already had success at AA and AAA, something we haven't seen from guys like ZVR. I don't think that's something you can hold against a young prospect though. McCutchen may help immediately, and he may have the success at higher levels, but in the long run, I feel ZVR will be the better player. That's what I feel it's all about. It's not "who will help next year" and "who has reached the highest levels". If that was the case, we would have ranked Neil Walker over Pedro Alvarez at the start of the 2008 season because Alvarez had yet to play in the pros, and Walker was closer to the majors.
Best case scenario I think McCutchen is a number three starter in the majors, but I think it's more likely that he ends up a number five starter in a good rotation. I think there are guys who have more upside than McCutchen, and when removing the idea of immediate help in the majors from the equation, I don't see a need to rank McCutchen higher than guys like ZVR, even if they've barely played professional ball.
2010 Expectations: McCutchen will compete for a rotation spot with the Pirates, likely battling with Kevin Hart for the number five spot. If McCutchen loses, he will probably go to AAA until a spot opens up for him in the majors. He will likely need two spots to open in the long run, as Brad Lincoln will take a spot once June rolls around.
Optimistic Projection: I don't think it's very likely, but McCutchen could be a number three starter, with similar numbers to Paul Maholm in 2008.
Conservative Projection: A number five starter on a good team, or a number four starter in a weaker rotation, posting an ERA between 4.00 and 4.50 on a consistent basis.
Check back late Sunday night/Monday morning for prospect number 20...
