9. Chase d'Arnaud, SS
2009 Season: The 2009 season was the first full professional season for d'Arnaud, who started the year in low-A at West Virginia. d'Arnaud got off to a great start, hitting for a .355/.408/.532 line in the month of April. He ended up with a .291/.394/.427 line in 213 at-bats, with three homers, and 17 stolen bases. Chase also had a 14.6 strikeout rate, and a 11.8 percent walk rate. All of his ratios were well above the league average for the South Atlantic League in 2009. His defense was also good enough to be named the best shortstop in the SAL for the 2009 season.
d'Arnaud moved up to Lynchburg in late June, where he spent time not only learning second base, but hitting from the top of the order. This was the first time in his career that he hit leadoff, and there were some early struggles as a result. d'Arnaud hit for a .125/.241/.250 line in his first 24 at-bats with Lynchburg. After that first week and a half, he hit for a .317/.423/.511 line in 186 at-bats from July to the end of the season.
d'Arnaud had a little bit of trouble with the strikeouts in high-A, although his 19.5 percent ratio was about average for the Carolina League in 2009, so it wasn't a major concern. His walk ratio remained strong at 12 percent, which was above average. d'Arnaud also hit four homers in his 210 at-bats, and stole 14 bases.
Overall d'Arnaud hit for a .293/.398/.454 line in 423 at-bats between low-A and high-A, with seven homers and 31 stolen bases. d'Arnaud had a scare at one point during the season, injuring his thumb. The injury was originally expected to end d'Arnaud's season in mid-July. d'Arnaud received better news from the Pirates' hand specialist in Pittsburgh, and was able to return in early August.
The return was crucial for d'Arnaud. Had Chase missed the rest of the season, he would have missed out on hitting for a .303/.389/.465 line in August and September. With those numbers, he could have earned himself a promotion to AA to start the 2010 season. Without those numbers, he likely would have been guaranteed to start the 2010 season in high-A. It was also crucial for Lynchburg in the playoffs, where d'Arnaud's key hits helped lead Lynchburg to the Carolina League Championship, with Chase winning the MVP award for the Championship Series.
Chase finished his strong season in the Arizona Fall League, hitting for a .296/.383/.383 line in 81 at-bats, which is significant because it came against pitchers who normally pitch in AA and AAA. d'Arnaud started out hitting for a .200/.300/.343 line in his first 35 at-bats. In his final 11 games he hit for a .370/.444/.413 line in 46 at-bats. d'Arnaud also led the AFL in stolen bases with 13, including at least one stolen base in his last seven games.
Information: An interesting note about Chase is that he was originally drafted in 2005 by the Los Angeles Dodgers, along with Jordy Mercer, Kyle Morgan, and Justin Wilson, all of whom were drafted by the Pirates in the 2008 draft. The Pirates took d'Arnaud in the fourth round of that 2008 draft out of Pepperdine University.
In his time with Pepperdine in 2008, d'Arnaud hit for a .314/.415/.547 line with 11 homers in 223 at-bats. d'Arnaud signed right away with the Pirates and got off to a strong start in State College, hitting for a .286/.333/.423 line with 14 stolen bases in 168 at-bats. He followed that up with a strong 2009 season in West Virginia and Lynchburg, capped off with a strong Arizona Fall League run.
The AFL success caught the attention of a lot of scouts, discovering what I discovered this past season in Lynchburg: Chase d'Arnaud does it all. It's rare that you will find a player with no weaknesses. Even taking an overly objective view, I find it hard to discover flaws. d'Arnaud has hit for average every step of the way, including in his brief time against AA and AAA level pitching in the AFL. He has some power, mostly shown as gap power, which is good for a middle infielder. He has strong plate patience. He's smart on the bases, and a threat to steal 30 bags a season. He's strong defensively, and can play second, short, and third.
The only complaint I can find is that he's not as strong at second as he is at shortstop, although he's only played 33 games at the position, not counting AFL games. He's very strong at shortstop after only two seasons at the position, and I have a feeling he will apply his defensive skills to second, making him a candidate to end up in the majors at either position.
d'Arnaud is 6' 2", 200 pounds. He has good range and a strong arm. At second base he looks good making the pivot on the double play to first. He has above average speed, is aggressive on the base paths, and smart on the bases, knowing which pitchers he can steal off of. d'Arnaud has good contact skills, which not only allows him to work the count and stay alive with two strikes, but is the reason for his good batting averages.
Overall, Chase is a good all-around player who could speed through the system quickly, and be in the Pirates' middle infield as early as June 2011.
2010 Expectations: d'Arnaud should start the 2010 season in AA, especially with the success he saw in the Arizona Fall League. He could end up in AAA by the end of the season if he gets off to a strong start in AA, similar to his time in West Virginia this year. He'll go up in the rankings once he proves he can handle the jump to AA.
Optimistic Projection: Chase does a lot of things well, and could be a great all around middle infielder who hits for average, steals bases, plays solid defense, and has some power. I'd compare him to Dustin Pedroia as an optimistic view.
Conservative Projection: I think Chase is capable of hitting for a .280-.290 average, and I think his walk and strikeout rates translate well for success in the upper levels. The difference between my conservative projection and my optimistic projection comes to power. I think Chase could be capable of repeating his 2009 stats at the major league level one day. The main difference is that the optimistic projection has a slightly higher average, and 15 homers a year.
Check back tomorrow for prospect number 8...
